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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: captain_midnite who wrote (26110)	4/19/2002 3:22:24 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) of 281500

If Ross is right and we have leverage on both partied (I agree) then forget about waiting for the Saudis or Egyptians. That's a dilatory path to more difficulties. We don't really have leverage on Arafat, and I think Ross was clearly implying as much in the way he said, you must really make Arafat believe that the US is going to cut ties with him this time. If Arafat continues to believe he's indispensible, it won't work. You don't play that kind of brinksmanship with someone you actually have leverage over, you just use your lever. What Ross didn't say out loud, but he and everybody knows, is that Arafat does believe he's indispensible and that Arafat is a past master at brinksmanship. How many gazillion times has he heard this this is really, really his last chance? He's still here, isn't he? No, we don't have leverage over Arafat. His Iranian and Iraqi paymasters and Hosni Mubarak and Prince Abdullah have leverage over Arafat, not us.

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