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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: yard_man who wrote (161025)	4/19/2002 6:50:42 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (2) of 436258

What is a quantum? that word has been so abused -- The way I was using it, I meant significant as opposed to incremental improvement in processes. Think order of magnitude, disruptive change. Perhaps on the lines of bacteria concentrating gold which is then distilled and so forth. Or self replicating solar cells... It is 99% hype and word play Think in terms of a decade, rather than months. Kurzweil said we have a tendency to think in linear terms, thus overestimate what can be achieved short term while underestimating what can be achieved long term. What Marc Faber found was something that probably only goes back the last 5 - 10 years. Faber actually went back to the 1800's. Take wheat for example. While the price of a loaf of bread rose from a nickel, the percentage of income allocated by the typical family for a loaf of bread has dropped. Wheat itself has become much less expensive over the centuries due to productivity enhancements, and represents an ever lower portion of the cost of bread. (An aside; As DAK would suggest, I think at least, the quality of most bread today probably has suffered too, suggesting maybe a negative hedonistic adjustment may be in order.) I think Rogers might have a point- reversion to the mean. While the long term (decades/centuries) trend is down, there may be occasions (such as 911) that prompt pricing inflections representing real opportunities. After I posted, I happened on a couple of pages on what Rogers is up to. Note the allocation of his fund as of last december. Will be interesting to see how that allocation changes come year end. rogersrawmaterials.com rogersrawmaterials.com And a current comment on the housing cycle jimrogers.com

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