<Rotation>
Maybe time to think out load?
Yeah, I think we are all trying to pull this off, especially as the pricing in this market is so inefficient at times. The challenge is that if there is exploration going on, and that seems to be picking up some, you can get the fat tail overnight great news that suddenly puts a name on the map. And I think we are kind of past the days when everybody slept through IR's like the ones MR and YMC released last year, where you could pick up manna from heaven for a day or two.
As far as avoiding the scams and getting the "real options", it would seem following the smart financing around might be the trick now. There are some pretty decent properties starting to get dusted off again, and there could be a little exploration boomlet developing. Most of these little companies are geologist driven, not promoter at this point, at least I think (small?). Just look for instance, how well one could have done in the last several months following an outfit like Sprott around. Prudent Bear's activities have been pretty shrewd too.
In terms of the rotation then, when or does one move out of the handful of low cost, high profile advanced stage deposits? I've been playing with the numbers on big one year winners like ELD, MFL, BAY (I'm all out now), CBD, NSU, GBU, GBG, MR and short of significant new discoveries and POG rallies, I have a hard time seeing much more than 50% from here in most of them even with buyouts. I see YMC as kind of unique. MAN IMO is the best advanced stage buy in the market right now.
I'm also scrutinizing lots of company specific stuff, and I really watch what they do and how they seem to operate. I'm trying not to stay too wedded to any company unless they are totally on my wave length. For instance I now see the value driver for NGT/AAS as an "under one roof" merger. These companies are going to need to raise major capital for PDG payments (I think by year end) and development, and IMO the combination is the only way to do it as I think it rerates them higher. I'm not going to wait around too long just hoping it will happen, and I don't think the market is either judging from the recent stock performances of the two. I definitely don't want to see NGT out trying to pay for promotion like they have. If these guys can't merge because of personalties or difficulties, then it's time to move on, at least for me. MNP: I'm a believer in the Mt. Kare story, but I've tempered it some now by the way they gave insiders and buddies all that ultra-cheap ten cent stock and warrants. I don't like that unless I'm part of it <g>. BGI is extremely undervalued but when is Simeaneau going to pull the trigger (sell) and give shareholders the real value. What purpose is served by going alone, and how long should one wait? MOY is kind of the same way. TNX up to now has really been in slo-mo, will that really change under Sinclair? Probably, but how much over 70 cents should it sell for just to see?
In the grassroots (or semi, or mixed bag) I'm comfortable with SUL (bought aggressively at 23-24, before Frank body snatched the rest), GNG, IMR, ARQ, WTC, SWG. Is IWA a stock worth getting into? Candente looks very interesting, but the stock has popped pretty good, so I have it on close watch. Radius was panned (mostly a object lesson in drilling techniques so far as I could tell?) by JS earlier, but they have the ground, funds and backer in Goldfields. I looked at Wolfden, but most everybody here missed the give away prices. Abacus has the Afton project in BC. Anybody have a feel for Barker in the Cariboo, or just promotional? Minera Andes is a Jack favorite that may be overlooked? Amarc another HDI, although property payments are fairly high. Maybe worth it? How about PLY at 13 cents? I'm sure collectively there are some winning ideas out there?
Then again maybe another little run in the big juniors and exit should be all one dares? It's been quite a sector, why push the luck, and I'm not going to play greater fool beyond a certain point. |
