50% GAINS PORTFOLIO – APRIL 20
KEY RATIOS:
TECH - 19%
NON-TECH - 81%
CASH - (-9.5)%
OPTIONS – 2%
BONDS – 5.5%
IN: HHLF (12.92), RAZF (.55), MCD-short (28.5), LLTC-short (43.47)
OUT: ILA, WTM, WM calls, HC calls, BPUR puts, CRYP calls, ILA calls, GSPT puts
TOP TEN: MAXF, ACGL, FF, NFI, BFCFB, RKT, OCAS, RNE, PMACA, WG. **Percentage of total portfolio: 56.5%. Top five holdings: 38%. Total portfolio: 47 companies (stocks, options and shorts).
CURRENT SHORTS AND PUTS: ARIA-short (5.68), LLTC-short (43.47), MCD-short (28.5)
SECTORS: Finance 49%, Retail 11.5%, Energy 8%, Real Estate 6.5%, Bonds 5.5%, Business Services 5%, Biotech 4.5%, Transportation 3.5%, Europe 3.5%, Communications Infrastructure 3%, Defense 2.5%, Software 2.5%, Asia 2.5%, Internet 2%, Gold 1%, Communications Services .05%, Cash (-9.5)%.
**Quicken 2002 calculates sector %’s as a total of all investments, including margin. Total Sectors plus/minus Cash will equal 100%.
HOLDINGS:
CATEGORY - STOCK (COST BASIS updated periodically to reflect averaging into positions)
FINANCE - ACGL (18.31), BFCFB (7.55), FF (13.25), GGAL (1.27), IMH (7.76), MAXF (3.48), NFI (9.95), OCAS (17.1), PMACA (20.44), QBEIF (3.35)
RETAIL - MCD-short (28.5), MHM (13.7), OI (14.96), PERY (12.05), RKT (19.01)
ENERGY - GW (3.9), HHLF (12.92), PGO Aug 7.5 calls (1), PGO Nov 5 calls (2.2), WG (14.91)
REAL ESTATE - AHR (11.50), FB (26.77)
BONDS - LVLT 2008 11% Bonds (58), NXTL Sep 2007 bonds (76.50)
BUSINESS SERVICES - EFDS (17.86), RAZF (.55), VWKS (5.93)
BIOTECH/HEALTHCARE - ARIA-short (5.68), AVD (18.5), SPEX (7.6), USON June 10 calls (.55)
TRANSPORTATION - AN (12.75), SPAR (8.21)
EUROPE - RNE (18.7)
COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE - ELMG (19.69), VSAT (12.50)
DEFENSE - ORBT (3.15), PVAT (3.6)
SOFTWARE - ELTE (11.7), HQNT (.74), PVSW (3.2)
ASIA - EWM (5.92)
INTERNET - SFTBF (19.1)
GOLD - DROOY (2.34), GG July 17.5 calls (1.8)
COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES - ALGX Jun 5 calls (.70), NXTL Aug 10 calls (1.70)
HARDWARE - LLTC-short (43.47)
**Monthly update on YTD performance: March 29, 2002: +2.5% YTD.
Dow +4% YTD, SP500 Unch. YTD, NASDAQ –5.5% YTD.
COMMENT – The markets didn’t move much after the early March pop, but the reduced volatility and broad strength in non-tech stocks made March the best month for the portfolio since the October rebound, picking up almost 7%. Most important, the portfolio recorded steady gains even after the Naz peaked and rolled over March 11-12.
This is our first ride on the gold bug bandwagon. After years of unfulfilled promises, gold is finally making what may be a sustained move over $300. Just to be careful, I already took profits in GG shares for three points; my DROOY lot has a 10% trailing stop. So the downside is limited with another 50-100% potential upside if gold spikes to $350+.
Otherwise financials still look like the best horse to ride as long as quality, undervalued small caps and mid-caps stay cheap. Drillers, oil service and utilities have more upside as the economy begins to rebound. They are certainly a better bet than moribund tech stocks with sky-high PE’s and questionable demand as sector after sector continues to wallow. The best tech bets now are companies with decent cash flow, low price-sales ratios and a steady market for their products. But I doubt that tech will exceed more than 25% of the portfolio for a while. |
