Russ,
<<It's been quite a sector, why push the luck, and I'm not going to play greater fool beyond a certain point.>>
Thanks for your post and the above statement, as I have similar feelings. You may have noticed the flak I got over on SDII (although in a nice way) when I posted how I had reduced my PM exposure to 80%. Based on the present POG, I agree that this sector is no longer a value play. It is dependent on the POG and the momentum that has been established. There is a point at which the value guys sell to the momentum guys. We are about there, but there are reasons to believe that the POG will continue to rise and that most any other sector will be disappointing, which could bring more investment to the gold sector even if the POG stays in a trading range. It is the psychology of belief vs. disbelief for both gold and the gold stocks. In his book "How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market", Nicolas Darvas describes a period when he was getting stopped out of most of his trades and finally realized that it was a bear market. Darvas' trading style saved him even if he didn't know it was a bear market. Hopefully mine will, too, as I look for signs of a change, but I don't see any yet.
Regards,
vt |
