Caxton,
<< What we are seeing is the failure of GPRS to make any impact on the GSM market. >>
I totally agree.
Moreover, (with only a handful of exceptions) we have yet to see an aggressive launch of GPRS services anywhere in the world.
I am candidly still uncertain as to whether we will see GPRS soft launches turn into aggressive marketing campaigns this fall or next spring.
I am, however, inclined to think that it could just as well be next spring as this fall ... which will of course simply postpone further capital investments in W-CDMA rollout, even to the point of having EDGE substitute as a near term alternative (not just a supplement) to W-CDMA, for lack of capital, for lack of developed services, and for lack of uncertainty for the business case of wireless multimedia data.
The same of course is true for 1xRTT which is 6 months late in Japan (although off to a very good start it appears) and which is woefully late in the United States, significantly impacting on what was once hyped to be a significant time to market advantage over other moderate data rate "next generation services".
It does remain to be seen if 1xRTT (outside of Korea & Japan) will make an impact on the cdma market.
<< Now we wait and see if slower GSM growth is due to the economy, lack of interest in higher data speeds, or preference for better devices, capacity, and data speeds (which we get to watch for the next year, starting in July when PCS launches 1X >>
If we are going to be intellectually honest about this ...
... first we need to address the fact that "growth" or lack of same applies to CDMA as well as GSM, as well as IS-136 & PDC, and please note that last calendar year cdma growth trailed both GSM & IS-136 (again).
... second we need to address the fact that next to Europe, North America (US/Canada) is evidencing the poorest growth of any region in the world, and Latin America is running well below forecasted growth this year (with Eastern Europe and MEA growing fastest - but slower than prior).
... third we need to address the fact that the US and Canada are less mature than any regions in the world other than those composed of developing countries when it comes to development of, and demand for, wireless data services.
<< Initial signs for 1X have been good, while the initial signs for GPRS have sucked. >>
Initial signs for 1xRTT out of Korea have been excellent.
The 3 carriers there have managed to do what no other carrier in the world other than DoCoMo (with iMode) - and to a lesser degree KDDI, and JPhone - have been has been able to do.
The Korean carriers in cooperation with Korean vendors accomplished this by gaining familiarity with packet data using IS-95B and taking advantage of 1xRTT data transmission speed and an "Always On" packet-switched data connection but also providing:
--> Color handsets
--> Color microbrowser (based on WAP 2.0).
--> Other "data oriented" functions in handset OS (SKT's GVM) & UI.
--> Steadily increasing Content (including color content).
--> Encouraging a strong development community.
--> Utilizing Java (SKT) or BREW (KTF) content
--> Refining market segmentation and new service offerings (SKT's TING & UTO)
--> Integrating multi-interface Internet Portal Offering (SKT's NATE).
--> Taking advantage of a uniquely developed marketplace for data services and gadgets
That's Korea (to a similar degree Japan).
It is NOT by any stretch of the imagination anywhere in the other countries where 10 other 1xRTT networks have supposedly launched (without 1xRTT data enabled handsets - only phone modem or modem card).
If they are at stage 5 (on a scale of 10) North America is early stage 2 and Latin America is stage 1, and China is stage 0.5 - and the GPRS carriers are roughly on average at stage 2 to 2.5.
<< In the next six months we find out if 1X has an impact on the CDMA market. >>
You mean in the next 3 months beginning several months from now, I take it?
I doubt that we are going to know in this Qualcomm fiscal year, and we probably won't really know till next spring.
I have faith in eventual wireless data acceptance, but I'm not expecting an overnight success.
I hope that I am proven wrong, but I honestly don't think that either Verizon or PCS has put the proper effort or requisite dollars into compensating for CDG's absolutely woeful, atrocious, and dreadful lack of emphasis on services and cooperation amongst member carriers in developing same.
<< Nok is in trouble for four reasons, GPRS sucks, more competition form the like of Samsung, saturated market in Euroland, and delays of WCDMA. >>
NOK may be in trouble (they are - the industry is), but they continue to be the only large cap wireless company to consistently put real GAAP dollars on the bottom line, and grow top line.
As for competition from the likes of (the very credible) Samsung, it has affected others but it most certainly has not yet affected NOK, now has it?
There is indeed a saturated market in Euroland so the growth goes elsewhere. Ironic that GSM is now growing fastest in the Americas.
As for W-CDMA, as it goes (or doesn't go), so goes Qualcomm growth.
Let us hope that Qualcomm puts on a grand show next week at earnings time.
Nobody else has. sector sucks.
I'll be travelling without laptop (and screw data on a wireless phone of all things) so I'll have to check in next weekend to find out what Qualcomm earnings looked like.
Catch ya on the flip flop.
- Eric - |
