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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.910-0.9%3:59 PM EST
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To: Eric L who wrote (19729)4/21/2002 12:43:03 PM
From: JScurci  Read Replies (4) of 34857
 
Eric, Regarding "success" or "failure" of 3g - I think many
are missing the crucial point. It all depends on your legacy
platform and migration path. For existing (IS95) carriers
the transition to 1xrtt is a clear cut success no matter
how much data services those customers end up using. Why?
Because the 10-15% incremental network cost yields an 80-
100 capacity improvement. Tantamount to a risk free bet on the economic outcome of peoples' demand for data services.
For the Euro carriers - remember that they've already been hobbled by the financial burden of their spectrum acquisitions (egged on in no small part by vendors' hype of both ease and economics of 3g deployment/transition) there is no risk-free test of 3g. Their 2.5G path involving GPRS
means sacrificing needed voice capacity for uncertain performance and demand of such data capability; and their
path beyond 2.5G involves yet more expense, uncertainty,
capacity tradeoffs, and importantly, NO BACKWARD COMPATIBILITY! These carriers now realize that the're literally between a rock and a hard place. Hence the tepid
demand for additional Nokia-led gooods and services.
Success in 3G is who gets there first on the basis of
carrier economics that work. And that spells IS95/1xrtt/
1xev/CDMA2000. Nokia has begun a slow grind down from its
reluctance to offer a technology/transition with viable
economics for its customers.
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