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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Steve Lee who started this subject	4/21/2002 2:51:27 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (5) of 99280

some random thoughts.... SMH...nice max pain hit...45 area NVLS..was 54 wednesday...but max pain was 50...so magically friday it was in the 50's... EBAY...was down to 52....but max pain was 55...so CEO gets on CNBC friday and stock goes to 54.99....:-) INTC...was as low as 27.76...not so great earnings report....and max pain was 30....so guess what....friday INTC hung around 30..... heres the best one....SPX....was as low as 1099....whoops..but max pain was 1125....how can we get to max pain with MSFT and INTC stinking up the place....the answer...perfume....lets spin the bad good.....like magic...on friday the SPX hung around 1125 like a baby bull to its mothers teat. :-) but we all know perfume is a temporary fix....sooner or later you have to take a shower... so you see...it doesn't matter what you think about fundamentals...or trying to decide if a report is good or bad...whether a company is lying or truthful....because at the end of the day....the market is going where " da boyz " want it to go....if they are short....its going down even on what you "think" might be good news....if they are long...its going up on what you think might be bad news... if the markets going down...it doesn't matter what you think about your favorite companies stock...its going where the market goes....down if the markets going up...it doesn't matter if you think a company is a dog...an up market can make even a dead dog bark again.... everybody knows about the pump and dumps in otc penny stocks....thats why most folks avoid them....most folks "think" that stuff doesn't happen on the big stocks...right! wrong!!!!!!!!!! look at this weeks charts of big known companies like WCOM and NXTL as just a small example....pure pump and dump.....and as the saying goes..."the crap always runs at market tops"....look at this weeks charts of RAZF..ADSX..IPRT... this whole market is pump and dump...and has been since 1995 when this whole bubble started taking off.....thats why its retracing back to where the bubble started....its a slow process...but its getting there..... and in order for it to retrace the bubble years for a complete flush out....the generals are the last to get shot..... thats why MSFT...IBM...GE...are just now showing their weakness.....you all know that once a "crack" appears in your ceiling....you can ignore it....but its just going to get worse.....well the final cracks of the bubble market are just now appearing...and the only question is when will the repair job come in....nasdaq 1387...1100....800..... if you are a bull....and you ignore the cracks that are forming....you likely believe that the cracks will not get bigger...1700 area is the bottom....you believe all these companies are truthful and the market is not rigged and corrupt by "da boyz".....you are likely a liberal in your day to day thinking....you believe o.j was innocent.... if you are a bear...you see these cracks as just the start of bigger cracks coming.....you know the market is rigged by big money in their favor.....you see the merrill...enron news as proof and know it runs much deeper than that....you know about the final phase of bear markets where the carnage is so complete that folks just will want out of stocks altogether.....you know history shows bubble markets retrace to their roots.....you are likely a conserative in your day to day life....and know o.j was guilty..... bull vs bear... liberal vs conservative those who believe merrill and enron are just isolated events and think a little slap on the wrist is punishment enough and it all "ends" there..... vs. those who believe merrill and enron are just the tip of the iceberg..and know the biggest part of the iceberg is underwater and yet to be fully seen and know more heads are going to roll and the fallout from this will be the final phase of this bear market with the worst carnage still to come.... a few more thoughts.... "sell in may and go away"..... lets see....record inflows are normally seen at market tops.....as the public always buys high and sells low..... so a bulls view of this... so if this market starts to rally into may....that means the public can sell near the top in may...go away as ZEEV's summer massacre unfolds....and come back to a nice bottom in sept-oct to catch the new bull market..... thats great news for the bulls.....it doesn't get any easier than that....especially easy since we are still in a bear market... a bears view.... market sells off in may....public again sells at the bottom....while the cats away...the mice will play...most folks forget about the market during the summer....so it will likely rally.....folks come back in sept-oct....buy at the highs yet again because the summer rally was a sure sign now that this is the new bull market....record inflows again marking a top.....then the final phase unfolds to nasdaq 1100..... i like to look at both sides of the story...bull vs bear....because i like my money and hate losing it to crooks.... i would like nothing more than to just buy some stock and hold it and forget about it as the market just slowly grinds up and my portfolio grows weekly.....it doesn't get any easier than that..... but those days are gone....those who can't or don't want to see that...are destined to lose even more money than they did the last few years....so if you don't have an open mind and look at both sides...good luck to you...you are going to need it.... my stance is more bearish going forward.....and can only change if nasdaq blows out that 1946 top..... so as long as nasdaq stays under 1946....i can see a drop coming to the 1400's....rally back to 1750's or so for the summer....if that plays out....and 1700 to 1800 marks a top in sept or oct....i'm going short hard....or long gold....because 1100's are coming.... if 1946 breaks to the up.....i will wait for a retest to see if it holds before i go " clown long" again.....thats the only thing that will get me thinking long again....1946 and up..then a retest...then it would be onward to the sky..:-) if you wonder where the 1946 comes from....well...that was the last breakdown point of a double top.....and this is very important because this whole bear market since nasdaq 5000....has broken down off of double tops......and has never...i repeat...never broken above those breakdown points yet..... why do i say a retest of 1946 if it breaks....because nasdaq can still run to 2098 top and still be considered not violating that " never breaking above a breakdown area yet".....so they could still pull a sucker run above 1946 to 2100.....but then if a retest of 1946 fails....it will still be considered in the pattern of never breaking a breakdown area..... so with that " never breaking above a breakdown area" in mind.... we are much closer to a top...then we are to a bottom in this market right now.... thats why my stance is more bearish....

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