The Democratic presidential nomination in 2004 will be a reward, like an empty purse. The old debts to the left, and possibly the blacks, will be paid up, and a 'candidate of the heart' will be sacrificed to a Bush 60%+ landslide.
If Kerry takes himself seriously, he may not be interested in a run that year. At the moment I predict:
1) Gore sees the big picture in early 2003, and passes for a future shot. He knows the business, and knows when it is telling him to stand aside...
2) The regional favorites, like Kerry and Edwards, take the plunge, and drop out early due to inadequate fund-raising (America's new way of telling presidential candidates "Not this time".) The more interesting fight may be for the VP slot.
3) Joe Leiberman gets the final nod, partly because everybody likes him, and partly to try to get the liberal Jews back after the shocking support of the left for the Palastinians.
4) The black political machine, anti-semetic to the end, sits it out. They realize that a third-party black candidate can never fly.
5) Bush gets 58-64% of the vote. With his era now passing, the Dems start that slow journey down the long road back. Every party needs this every 2-3 decades. Clears away the distortions and gets the ideas back on line.
I am fascinated by the direction the Democratic party will take over the next 12-20 years as they finally realize that the left is a bankrupt relic of the 20th Century... |
