The possibility of LOR swallowing GSTRF is pretty real, but we can't lose sleep over it. In my opinion, Mr. Schwartz is motivated primarily by one thing - making money. He shed himself of his beloved Loral Electronics to become the new Loral Space & Communications because he saw a new sandbox to play in, one that had far bigger possibilities than defense electronics. So, while he may indeed swallow GSTRF when the time is right, if you are positioned in the two companies in the correct proportions we should all live happily ever after.
As far as LOR being a target for a take over, that too is possible, but in my opinion not as likely. My guess is that the FTC wouldn't allow it, but this is not my area of experience, so maybe someone who knows better could throw in their two cents. But my reasoning is as follows: There are now three commercial satellite builders in the US, and with the communications industry on the brink of new era, I would think the FTC would want to maintain a little competition. It's not like the Big Defense Contractors, who had the Pentagon rooting for thier consolodation.
While I am pontificating, I can't help but throw in my two cents about something I do know something about. Several threads up I read comments like "Motorola is trying to position themselves as the premier satellite builder on the world". Beg to differ but they have never built, nor do they ever have plans to build a satellite. Same goes for Teledesic. Right now satellite manufacturers are overbooked, and there isn't enough new blood coming into the field, at least not right now there isn't. Just a few short years ago fiber was going to rule, and aerospace was linked to defense and the industry was looking like a dinosaur. Hence, no one was going into the field. Now, almost overnight, the industry is booming, and all this swords into plowshares stuff is hurting a little bit. In short, LOR has a good edge because they build `em, and don't just order `em.
Right now a lot of GSTRF investors are a little nervous with IRIDF having two successful launches under their belt, and GSTRF's still waiting in the wind. Remember, though, that even three years ago IRIDF was going to have satellites up about a year before GSTRF. And also that IRIDF slipped several times before they finally launched anything. So now is not a good time to be nervous, even if GSTRF slips a little bit too. |
