THE FRONT OFFICE GORILLA GAME - PART 2 (delayed)
When I posted the first part of my quarterly front office report, I didn't post the current numbers that show this real-time gorilla game in progress. Thanks for being patient.
THE GORILLA GAME
This Gorilla Game is just one month shy of being 4 years in progress. Since the date it began, the Naz and S&P 500 are almost unchanged. Meanwhile, the value of the Gorilla Game has more than doubled.
Because the Naz hit its high in early 2000, lately I've also been comparing the performance of the Game and the indices since 1/1/2000. I'm not surprised that the S&P 500 has fallen about half as much as the Gorilla Game. However, I am surprised that the Gorilla Game has fallen less than the Naz since then. Moreover, at each of the 14 data points I've recorded since Jan. 1, 2000, the Gorilla Game has outperformed the Naz all but one time. At that time, it lagged the index only slightly.
Since History
History 1/1/00 Annualized
Gorilla Game 133.64% -42.81% 24.24%
Nasdaq -0.45% -55.84% -0.70%
S&P 500 1.32% -23.41% 0.01%
The numbers for Siebel Systems as of the close of market, April 19, 2002:
Change
5/25/98 5/1/99 4/11/00 Current From First
Buy Price Buy Price Buy Price Price Purchase
SEBL $5.75 $9.61 $52.47 $27.11 371.48%
The Final Tally
Stocks $23,260.38
Cash 104.08
Total $23,364.46
Details about the Game
The Front Office Gorilla Game (not a real-money portfolio) was begun with $10,000 and four stocks in equal dollar amounts on May 25, 1998. Using the rules of the Game, I gradually eliminated all gorilla candidates until only the stock of the Gorilla (Siebel) remained as it does today.
Commissions are based on $8 per trade. The value of earnings on invested cash is not calculated. Those earnings would have been so insignificant that no meaningful lesson could have been learned from them.
And last, the most important stuff ...
CAVEAT: I own shares of Siebel Systems. In the past I have owned long and short positions of Siebel's competitors (including some that were at one time "in the Game") and reserve the right to do so in the future. Most important, please, please don't make any investment decisions based on anything coming from my keyboard. Do your own homework!
--Mike Buckley |
