OT market commentary:
SPX hit bottom (the bottom, or a bottom?) at 944 in 9/01, rebounded sharply, made a months-long rounded top (peaking at 1177 in 1/02, and is now falling to the next intermediate bottom. Halfway between those two points is 1060, which is my guess for where we bounce. In the now-dead March rally, we spent more time above the 200DMA than we have at any time in this whole Bear Market. An encouraging sign, which needs to be confirmed by setting an intermediate-term bottom well above the 9/01 lows. Maybe on the rally after the upcoming bottom, we can stay above the 200DMA. This would convince me the Bear Market is over (telecom and telecom-equip and the Walking Dead excepted).
stockcharts.com[h,a]dahlnymy[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60]
Nas:
stockcharts.com[h,a]dahlnymy[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60]
Weaker than SPX. The midpoint of the 9/01 low and 1/02 high is 1742, and we're already there. My guess is, we bounce in the 1600s. 1620 was the 4/01 low, and I doubt we take that out.
Of the conference calls and quarterly reports I've read, from techs, they were all (EMC and telecoms excepted) quite encouraging. As far as the fundamentals in techs, I am more encouraged now than I have been, in a long, long time. Which means, after I buy this dip (I'm sitting on about 40% cash today, and many buy points as posted on this thread are near to hitting), in the next rally, I will keep a marginally firmer grip on my shares, than I have the past 2 years. I'm expecting the Nas, sometime in 2002, to take out the 1/02 high (2098), and possibly take out the 5/01 high (2328). But valuations will (continue to) put a ceiling on the Nas, so I'll be selling heavily when we get back to those levels. |
