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Technology Stocks : Full Disclosure Trading
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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (266)4/22/2002 2:42:20 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 13403
 
Jacob,

I want to pose a possible model for many of your favorites, CSCO, JDSU, EMC. In 1982-3 IBM was a $50B company. They geared up for a 5 year plan which predicted $100B. It is 20 years later and while they are still highly respected, they have not reached $100B. Since 1982-83, technology has grown very rapidly and we have had rapid economic growth. IBM was the strongest technology company and it was well positioned to take advantage of the growth. IBM was highly respected and its management was considered among the best, if not the best.

My conclusion is that smaller and simpler is more likely to flourish. Gorillas are more likely dinosaurs or potential dinosaurs. Monopoly is the greatest ally of gorillas and the greatest impediment to progress.
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