Larry's channels are excellent for medium term, when they hold, the reason I jumped out is that the market did not follow the model (the model called for a low opening and then steady rise), and then broke through 1770, a very important barrier, but more importantly, intraday through 1757. That indicates to me that the first top (in the April May double top "picture") was reached at 1830 or so, and a second top will not go much above that level, entering into the model's "massacre period" of May-June. Too risky for me to have a close to 100% exposure.
I am trying to understand what changed, and all can come up with is the Le Pen showing in Europe, possibly a source of future detsabilization in the EU. That was not at all considered in the broad "political background" in December, but it is not going to be a source of good news later this year, even though, Chirac is almost assured a victory in May. Just raised additional cash by selling BSTE here few minutes bac at $25.75, a neat $3 plus gain.
Zeev |
