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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (54488)4/22/2002 5:20:11 PM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
>>I am trying to understand what changed

Here is a list of recent changes that may speed up a retest of the September lows:

Fed officials, including Greenspan, signalled they won't be raising interest rates as aggressively as the market expected. They may be afraid of the double dip. Long term interest rates responded by rising -- the bond boyz don't seem to trust the Fed anymore.

At the just concluded G7 meeting the US was beat up for its huge trade deficit and its large corporate and consumer indebtedness. The Europeans were pretty smug about the Euro's prospects and were expressing doubts about how long investment flows to the US will continue. Coincidentally, the dollar appears to be losing steam.

Greenspan's recent testimony included feeble attempts to deny that a housing bubble exists. It sounded like his denial of a tech bubble, right before that bubble burst.

Argentina's mess has taken a turn for the worse. Foreign banks and corporations stand to lose everything invested there.

Oil prices, which were supposed to be weakening by now, are instead rising. Iran is making boycott noises. Iraq stopped exports temporarily.

It all boils down to a strong possibility of an accelerated double dip, IMO.

Kyros
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