| I think I'm including that in my expected 1400-2800 Nas range. In fact, I think it would take another "exogenous shock", for a retest of the Nas 1400 double bottom. An oil embargo, an overthrow of our Saudi Arabia client state government by an Iranian-style revolution, another Argentina, another LTCM, another Enron, all these are possible. And the possibility of each of these events happening has already been thoroughly discussed, in the general and business press. A lot of investors are anticipating the probability of one or another of those events happening, already. So, it won't be an unexpected shock. To a certain extent, it's already in stocks. Remember how stocks plunged after 9/11, but then only went down slightly with repeated Anthrax attacks? Humans can get used to anything. We just get numb, after a while. Zap a rat with an electric shock, and he jumps the first time. Eventually, habituation sets in, and he ignores it (unless the zaps get bigger, which is always a possibility). I'm betting investors are now mostly habituated to the likely zaps to the market. But it's just a guess, and I know I could easily be wrong. |
