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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 36.20+0.1%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: Joe NYC who wrote (164454)4/23/2002 4:31:48 AM
From: wanna_bmw  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
Jozef, Re: "I think the 3rd option is the most likely outcome."

Of course you do. You made up your mind months (years??) ago.

But I think that the interpretation of your #1 possibility is open to a wide range of discussion. I have no doubt in my mind that Itanium will be "successful" in generating revenue, in taking market share from the RISC market, and of producing a return on investment within a couple years - and that's at the very least. If software and infrastructure end up building faster than I expect, I think Itanium could generate a new kind of demand for high end servers. I think that performance will surprise many, once the initial architecture bugs are worked out, and that the money and effort that Intel and other OEMs will put into Itanium will give it the best qualities of high end computing at a price tag far more affordable than traditional RISC platforms.

But you're free to remain the skeptic. I think it will take McKinley and Madison to show you that Itanium can be a competitive solution in terms of performance, and real systems from HP and Compaq will be required to show you that Itanium infrastructure is ready for a real business solution. But I don't think you will be convinced at all without some real volumes and revenue generated. I expect Itanium to sell in the hundreds of thousands of units in 2003, and in the hundreds of thousands per quarter in 2004, along with a positive NPV by that time. We'll have to see what happens, though.

wbmw
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