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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (95620)4/23/2002 4:19:54 PM
From: Night Trader  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
The people who set these questions have a weird way of looking at the future as if it's just a continuation of the past. You can't say that stocks will beat bonds over 18 years or even give a probability to it - it may or may not happen but the past tells you nothing as to how likely that is.There's a great article I read this morning that touches on this - I never knew Money magazine had such good writers!:

"There's a lesson here. Whenever I hear the word "optimizer," I think of the philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein, whose life's work was to try to establish what it truly means to know something. He once imagined someone who would "buy several copies of the morning paper to assure himself that what it said was true." No matter how many times you reshuffle the past in your Monte Carlo machine, you're still drawing from the past to predict the future. You are reading from multiple copies of the same newspaper."

datalab.morningstar.com
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