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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (55223)4/23/2002 5:33:02 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (3) of 99280
 
Mish, I think you may have it backwards. Things are setting up for a low this week Friday or early next week, a rise, a re-test of the low, and then a rally into May max pain. After May Max Pain at 34.50 or 35, they will take it down hard to delta hedge against June. They need to get to 30 or so by June expiration, and I think we hit 28 QQQ the week after that.
That's based upon P&F, cycles, and other junk.

Actually I do not think I have it backwards.
I take pleasure in my call of DOWN HARD at expiry or just after. I believe these last 2 days was that. I see no reason for anything other than a small bounce here. Hoping for a swoon to QQQ 29-30 or even below.

Then up into May expiry.
We agree on that.

The only question to me then: is is it a Late May early june relapse (followed by a June rally), or a continous rally into June.

I am still sticking with June rally into Expiry (but I am not sure from what point).

Much of that June Rally call depends on how low we get in the next two-three weeks. If we just thrash around with low vix vxn, then I am inclined to believe we have a relapse in late may/early June. Much depends on the way Max Pain shapes up in june.

Regardless, I stick with at least a nominal June rally and I certainly see no reason to change my forcast of down immediately after expiry that I made some time ago.

M
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