I'm interested in the constraints, and how you think they will be violated and what you think the consequences will be.
Ok, trying to simplify a very complicated situation....
The US troops on the island of Basilan are supposed to be training Philippine troops that are trying to track down a kidnap-for-ransom gang called the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). The ASG are usually referred to as a terrorist organization. I don't think this is an accurate description: while they pay lip service to the goal of an independent Muslim state in Mindanao, they have always been in it for the money, and are more bandits than terrorists, though they have received support from Al Quaeda. There are several thousand Philippine troops on Basilan, and at this time about 650 Americans, 150 of whom are Special Forces troops attached to Philippine field units. Their mission is supposed to be training, though they are allowed to return fire if fired upon. The total strength of the Abu Sayyaf is under 100; they have traditionally had a presence on the nearby island of Jolo, but most are believed to be on Basilan. They are holding an American missionary couple hostage, kidnapped in a raid on an upscale resort.
That sounds fairly straightforward. It's not. The Americans are supposed to strictly avoid clashes with any of the other armed groups on the island. There are several of these. The most problematic is the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). This is actually much more of a terrorist group than the ASG, and has much more extensive contact with Al Quaeda and other Muslim terrorist organizations. The MILF has around 12,000 men under arms. Most of these are on the mainland of Mindanao, but they have a number of camps on Basilan. The Americans aren't supposed to fight with the MILF because they have an operative ceasefire with the Philippine Government, and are involved in negotiations.
There are also other armed groups. In that area any local leader of note, any mayor, governor, congressman, or just plain bad-ass local boss, has a private army. Many of these have several hundred armed men, based in fortified camps.
The problem is that all of these groups are interlinked in a complex web of clan, kinship, and tribal ties. They are also linked financially. The ASG started out by kidnapping Chinese businessmen; they paid a chunk of the profit to local police and military leaders and local politicians. The ASG connection has been very profitable to a lot of people down there, and one reason they have so often escaped from situations in which they've been surrounded is that a lot of influential people don't want them caught.
If the pursuit gets tough, ASG members can and do take refuge in camps run by the MILF or local private armies, where the Philippine troops and their American advisors can't go. There are also serious questions about the commitment of the officers in charge of the local troops to the mission.
I don't doubt that the American presence has forced the local commanders to crack the whip a little. The fact remains, though, that this has been going on for a month or more with no results, and it is not a big island (though the terrain is horrendous). I suspect that if the Americans really want to get the ASG they will have to break away from the "training mission" and launch independent action that would very likely violate the neutrality of MILF camps and/or local bigwigs. That would almost certainly lead to a loss of Philippine Government sanction for the whole operation, which would be a difficult situation.
A fight with the MILF would be extremely sloppy, requiring a massive troop commitment and a presence unacceptable to the Philippine government. That would be pointless: while the MILF is closely associated with the bin Laden network, I don't see that it presents of itself a threat to US security that would justify the mess.
That's just scratching the surface. As you can see, it's complicated. |
