Hi DAK, <<I smell implosion which should bode well for metal holders>>
I am several thousand miles closer to the abyss than you and so I see the fire already. I suspect the China Syndrome melt-through will hit NYC soon.
Dateline 9:15am, Thursday April 25th, 2002. Boeing 757 flight to Shanghai.
My stay in Yichang was worthwhile but otherwise not memorable. I collected some money, signed some papers, reinforced some business relationships, and had a good meal.
For this mercenary of globalization and victim of deflation, onward to Shanghai.
I had downloaded some news before getting on the plane.
I understand Euro is wobbling because of threatened strike in Germany, feared democracy in France, and I note this (political extremism) is an explicitly stated and integral part of the Collapse Script.
I hear the USD is wiggling because of deficits of policies and depressed earnings of enterprises. Yes ACF Mike, AOL just wrote off more inconsequential paper. Since our last discussion of write-downs, AOL lost 33% of its market cap, admitted all paper still; in Maurice language, all Q money; in MeDroogies-speak, just house money.
Yes MeDroogies, AOL is suffering from advertising downturn of, presumably in your speak, the ‘company non-specific’ variety.
At some awful moment of realization and clarity of new conviction, the paradigm shift will cause perceive wealth to head for hell, and real wealth to ascend to heaven?
Next news item. I see that the Japanese Yen is strengthening (or at least not softening). Incredible, Maurice, no? Remember the discussion on the Yen back in October, 2000?
Message 14680519
“Should the Euro fail, or is perceived broadly to be able to fail, a self-sustaining momentum may gather strength. At that moment, the interplay between the Euro, Yen, dollar and gold may result in some irrational moves making the sort we have seen in the equity market seem like a meandering gentle river, as the players in currency market includes all nations and all economic participants, enterprises and individuals. I note that America, Japan and China are not selling down their gold reserves, and the Euro states are. One of the camps has to be wrong. Some insurance for the downside seems to be called for.”
And again in May of 2001:
Message 15839776
“I think gold vs. dollar vs. Euro vs. Yen, trade blocs vs. globalization, Islam vs. Christianity, Hindu vs. Islam, Israel vs. Arabs, Japan vs. Asia ex-Japan, India vs. China, Pakistan vs. India, Russia vs. EU, communism vs. capitalism vs. socialism, gun vs. butter, nuclear power vs. carbon energy, Republicans vs. Democrats, Tory vs. Labor, Marx vs. Adam Smith, inflation vs. price stability, US vs. China, China vs. Taiwan, Via vs. Intel, Legend vs. Dell, Linux vs. Windows, etc. are all dots on the same continuum of geopolitical, socioeconomic and ethnic tapestry. Any issue on this tapestry is related in every way to every other issue.”
At least once more in June of 2001:
Message 16018570
“The easiest trade now is also the most dangerous trade, which speaks volumes about the strange environment we find ourselves: we can borrow a gabillion Japanese Yen at 125 exchange rate, 1.25% interest rate, lock in a Yen Put strike 120 for 3% annually, and then invest the borrowing in a basket of so-so but safe bonds yielding say 8%, netting a 3.75% carry on a gabillion USD, and sip coconuts some where warm. So, why do we not do it? Because instinctively we feel that in our weakened global condition, an accident is waiting for the most opportune moment to happen.”
Maurice, yoo hoo, over here, BOO! An accident is likely to happen at this juncture.
Pity my virtual NEM and its derivatives, plus JYen loan portfolio. Nothing in life is for certain.
I had always thought the JYen and gold would be negatively correlated (one down and the other up). I am wrong. Both can apparently rise, against the USD of all fiat! In the midst of a global WAT yet. Amazing.
Here is a Mainland Chinese view of what is happening and what may be a cure:
Message 17376598
Shall we now talk about Argentina? No? Because ACF Mike say it is country specific, and cannot print its way out of foreign currency debt like the US can?
I say NO, the problem is not country specific, and the solution is not nation unique:
Argentina
(a) lived beyond its means,
(b) feasted on debt at all levels,
(c) imported more than it exported in sustained fashion over long period, and
(d) can only get going again by confiscating foreign assets, seizing domestic liabilities, and printing itself into hyper-inflation, in lieu of taxing of its democratically mindless street mob population.
Are these ingredients sounding at all familiar? Here is a hint. A mushroom and sausage pizza is exactly like a sausage and mushroom pizza.
The countries cannot print its way out of debt without consequence to the domestic population, but it, like all countries, can steal its way out of all foreign and domestic debt at harsh cost to foreigners and locals alike.
I understand there are still a few Chinese Qing dynasty silver-backed railroad bonds changing hands on the London financial market, even though they fetch a better price in the Hong Kong antique market.
I am guessing my message is not going to chime any of ACF Mike's bells or bonging Maurice’s gongs, but no matter, because the truth will always emerge from the facts, eventually, when the Central asset managers, like all managers, either fail or retire.
Message 17368500
… even as Central asset managers try to straighten out the deck chairs.
Unless, of course, we read the Turkish press where they are about to pass a law that forbids the printing of bad news. No, I am not trying to be funny. I cannot make up this stuff for I lack imagination:
Message 17381058
Now, Maurice, more ominously, here is a series of reports that forms an ugly picture to someone as unimaginative as I:
Message 17368493
Message 17368320
Message 17369012
Message 17368318
Again, warning, I lack imagination.
Chugs, Jay |
