Brenda:
Read through this thread carefully. Dave S., or whatever his name is, has made one marked contribution to the thread: sell-side analysts generally do have vested interests. For those of you who are obtaining information from retail brokers, please note that they are, almost without exception, dealing from a stance of relative ignorance.
Agouron is a class act. Until recently, I've been a shareholder, on and off, for many years.
The Alanex deal strengthens the business plan considerably. Existing partnerships are strong and collaborative.
However, patient accrual for Thymitaq has been slow and is proceeding behind schedule. There *is* a hole in the pipeline. I fully expect that one of two partners is willing to take on a huge equity stake and to provide a cash cushion, Chiron-like, which will get AGPH over the hump. Peter Johnson is as bright as they come, and he will play it out as long as possible, attempting to maintain full independence. However, it is an open question if Viracept will allow for this. While I'm as excited about AG 3340 as anyone, and about anti-angiogenesis in general, it is an unproven concept.
With respect to the common cold...... it ain't gonna happen. Trials will be designed to address only those patients for whom a cold is particularly disabling (COPD). The Nastech deal is another reflection of AGPH's foresight.
Reality: shareholders of AGPH are holding a beauty. Corporate partners see the value in the drug discovery process, and, one way or another, the company will be successful. They have achieved that level of sophistication. While I expect sudden upside, any indication of tox from Viracept or from PIs in general, and you'll lose a significant portion of your investment overnight. On paper, that is; those who would not sell into any such panic should do well, regardless, long-term. Contrary to what Broken Clock Man has to say, the existing product portfolio, expertise and patents justify the current market cap. It is not out-of-line, and big pharma knows what it costs to develop an organization with the disciplines and patents that Agouron possesses.
Broken Clock Man says that the company misrepresents stuff. That is simply not true. He advises you to call the company. This is wise advice, despite his suggestion that you ask specific questions that address his own manipulative agenda. If you do call the company and talk to Donna Nichols in Corporate Communications, you will get an honest appraisal of the pipeline.
Good luck in all your investments!
Rick |
