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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: sun-tzu who wrote (162099)4/25/2002 1:40:13 PM
From: martin001  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Sun -

I'd be interested to hear your take on what market history
is telling you. And why that interpretation is making
you bullish.

The most obvious lesson of the markets is their
cyclical nature. Every boom is followed by a bust.
The more exuburant the high- the more devastating the low.

Even setting aside the notion of the previous bubble
and its ramifications, any new bull market is preceded
by a period of retrenchment. Weaker companies go
bankrupt, consolidations occur, and debt used for the
previous expansion gets paid down. The only thing
that has happened currently are the bankrupticies.
I see no consolidation and no debt being cleared from
balance sheets. In fact corporate debt is worse.

It is my belief that because of the massive malinvestment
that occurred during the last few years, the period
of retrenchment will be much longer than normal.

M
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