I haven't written Sun off, Rocky. My position is small compared to what it was (not because I rode it down, but because I sold at mostly the right time), but I'm still holding it for the very reasons you list.
Every one of these big tech companies including Intel Oracle and Microsoft is facing serious competitive threats, execution challenges, and a lot of uncertainty in the economy. The big-tech landscape will probably look surprisingly different in 5 years. In Sun's case, my opinion is that their execution on new products over the past 3 years has been poor, that critics who say that their management has focussed too much on Microsoft are right, and that they've actually been SPARED margin pressure that they could be under right this minute if Intel hadn't mangled the Itanic. Microsoft and Intel have had their sights on Sun for several years, and they've screwed up too. (The computer business is, sort of like Abelson says, "a battle of wits among unarmed opponents".)
All this is even neglecting Sun's addiction to easy dotcom money, their focus on the hard-hit telco segment, and "lack of visibility" in the general economy which has caused them to do a major RIF and may cause another.
Sun's a great company with (IMO) great management, but they haven't executed well recently and face a lot of obstacles like everybody else. But I or anybody would be foolish to write them off.
--QS |
