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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: BSGrinder who wrote (11075)4/25/2002 6:33:19 PM
From: t4texas  Read Replies (3) of 36161
 
selling time is more profitable than buying time

when a stock or group (such as gold miners) is in an uptrend, bullish option timing is much easier. what i am saying is that even when your timing is bad, the uptrend will many times bail your timing mistakes out for you. one can't always be so lucky (or perceptive).

since timing is normally tough, even on a short sell, i would much prefer to be short the stock rather than buy the put and hope my timing was correct. this idea that shorts leave one open for infinite risk has not passed the test -- even when greenspan gave us the surprise rate cut jan. 3, 2001.

calling timing is tough whether one wants to be short or long a stock, so i much prefer to sell time than buy time. that means i normally sell uncovered puts (bullish) or sell covered calls (bearish or just time to sell or just don't care if i sell, etc.). that means i would rather buy a stock or short a stock rather than buy a call or buy a put and depend on my timing. empirically i have found that time on my side will help a lot when the trend is not so clear. also selling time puts you on the side of the "house." in options that means you make money about 75% to 90% of the time. i like those odds even if theoretically being short a stock could lead to infinite loss. (oh, and yes, sometimes i get uncovered puts put to me rather than buy them back and lose some money. i got some f put to me off 20 puts. no problem as i did not mind having f put to me. as i recall i had it put to me at about 17.50 equivalent. so i am still only 1.5 points under water on f.)
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