Even in Absence of Global Central bank Reflations, another reason why commodity markets could well become as volatile as the NASD was in 198 to 2001 over the next 5 to 10 years.
John
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Friday 26 April 2002
2002 'warmest for 1,000 years'
By Charles Clover, Environment Editor
(Filed: 26/04/2002)
THE first three months of this year were the warmest globally since records began in 1860 and probably for 1,000 years, scientists said yesterday.
Dr Geoff Jenkins, director of the Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre, said the record on land and sea was consistent with computer predictions of the effects of man-made global warming.
The three months were about 0.71C warmer than the average for 1961 to 1990, itself the warmest period for 1,000 years according to ice-core analysis, he added.
The record warm period was the more remarkable because there was no sign of the cyclical El Nino in the tropics, which has attended the succession of record warmest years in the past decade.
The global record comes in the wake of observed changes in the British climate since 1900: a lengthening of the growing season for plants by one month in central England, a temperature increase of 1C, and a 10cm sea level rise.
Margaret Beckett, the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary, said: "In recent years more and more people have accepted that climate change is happening and will affect the lives of our children and grandchildren. I fear we need to start worrying about ourselves as well."
She was speaking at the publication of a report, The UK Climate Impacts Programme, a joint venture between her department, the Hadley Centre, and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia.
Scientists, who compiled different scenarios for high, medium and low emissions of greenhouse gases, predicted the following changes in the British climate by 2080:
A rise in average temperature of 2-3.5C, probably with greater warming in the south and east. Generally, the climate will be like Normandy, the Loire or Bordeaux, according to the amount of global emissions.
Hot days in summer will be more frequent, with some above 40C (104F) in lowland Britain under the high emissions scenario.
Summer rainfall will decrease by 50 per cent and winter rainfall increase by 30 per cent under the highest emissions projection.
Snowfall will decrease throughout Britain, by 90 per cent in Scotland according to the highest greenhouse gases scenario.
Sea levels will rise by 26-86cm (10-34in).
The probability of a storm surge regarded as extreme will increase from one in 50 years to nine in 10 years under the high emissions scenario.
A cooling of the British climate over the next 100 years because of changes to the Gulf Stream is now considered unlikely.
Mrs Beckett said some of the predicted impacts were already irreversible, but others could be slowed by international action under the Kyoto climate treaty. |
