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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: StockOperator who wrote (34855)4/25/2002 11:10:26 PM
From: StockOperator  Read Replies (4) of 52237
 
Thread,

I just wanted to pop in and point out a few observations on the charts. Over the past couple of weeks I have said a lot. And trust me because I post so infrequently I tend to remember every major point and nearly every stock that I mention. Like my point of a few weeks ago that the next six to eight weeks could offer us the most damage to equity prices. Or my prediction that there was the possibility (based off the charts) that this whole down draft in prices could POSSIBLY come on the heels of a major event. What?? Who knows, but one of the things I based that call off of was the structure of DIS chart. Which after today's trading is even more troublesome to me because I'm asking myself what does the market foresee that us mere mortals don't? DIS's earnings after the bell were actually received well by the street and their outlook for the rest of the year was also taken as upbeat. So with that out of the way you would expect prices to if anything hold their own or perhaps even gain ground throughout the rest of the year. But yet my work is telling me that the turn in prices is inevitable if not right around the corner. What causes this turn, inspite of the favorable outlook is something I will leave to the markets. But once again I find this scenario troublesome. BTW, to buy into that argument one would have to believe that prices do indeed LEAD the news and that all the trading PRIOR to an event does have a predictive value. Something I wholeheartedly accept but yet realize many non-technical traders would have a problem with. Anyway, my main point being that DIS should be ripe for a fall.

Also, check out a weekly chart on HD. Go back the last five months and notice the h&s pattern forming. Because this pattern has formed over a longer time frame is all the more reason to respect it. Now check out AMHC also on a weekly basis going back the last year. A huge h&s pattern on an even larger time frame all the more reason to respect it. That's why when I see the stock up .72 cents on a day like today I know that any move higher will be simply unsustainable. Therefore a big short candidate at the right time. Speaking of h&s check out how the daily played out for MMC. Stock got crushed on the failed right shoulder.

The rest of the major players look sick. Plenty of rolling over prices. I am waiting for the close of the month to put a spin on the month as a whole. So I remain bearish but yet also appreciate the fact that the market loves to surprise those that are not flexible in their approach.

Good luck trading.

SO
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