<Is it time for you to position your portfolio for a fractal scale-up of Argentina to the overall world economy?>
A couple of days ago, I shipped all my US$ to Hobbitland with a view to converting them to NZ$ and thence into some real asset [spectrum auction coming up and, seriously, I am seeking investors if you or some of your filthy rich friends wish to do better than watch their hard-earned filthy lucre go down the gurgler on a ship-wreck on Money Rock].
I am partly positioned and proceeding apace to be prepared for fractalized failure on any scale, or, for success. I've been preparing for 3 years - actually 6 years since discussing deflationary implosion with jfred in SI way back then and periodically ever since.
Finally the script I saw coming has arrived and so far, things have gone according to the script I guessed, other than in two vitally important variables - namely, that CDMA has taken 3 years longer to get to this stage than I had thought it would and that Globalstar management [including the service providers] did NOT change their pricing when their initial marketing plans failed as I always expected they would - and had ranted about for years]. Fortunately, I had allowed for the possibility that CDMA would take a long time and that QUALCOMM would drop 75% in value and that Globalstar might go to zero, so I have been left with plenty of nausages to continue, although I have been financially mutilated.
Most importantly, on the correct side of the ledger, Uncle Al did exactly as I predicted he would do and the dot.coms did as I expected. Also as expected, deflation has not been an "inside the event horizon" experience where there is a concatenating financial collapse, cascading into a pile of rubble as layers of debt collapsed one on the other like WTC floors one on the other with a rapid and total financial collapse of asset prices.
Over the last two years, some very major, all time huge problems have been clearing from the market - the $trillion Dot.com mania and associated Telecosmic exuberance. That process is not yet complete, but a huge amount of restructuring of investors, employees and processes has been carried out. All without my nightmare WTC-style floor-on-floor collapse taking place.
The Y2K terrors were a total fizzer as I guessed [and the financial wobbles of much money supply has been tidied up].
The Asian Contagion has been and gone, successfully [though not completely] navigated without implosion.
Russia went broke and is now making money exporting high-priced oil and gas.
Mexico's mid 90s woes are long gone.
We still have Japan's banking debt load to be cleared out, but that will be a matter of stealing from savers [the age-old method of sorting out excessive debt and being people of robust character, the savers will take it in their stride with nary a sound. Like Sisyphus, they'll put their shoulder to the wheel, their nose to the grindstone, their ear to the ground and back to the wall in remarkably skillful contortionist processes and start again to roll their rock up the hill.
I don't believe the US$ will fail for a long time yet - I think it'll gradually lose market share to cyberspace sharemarket indices traded on servers around the world. The old days of high-friction share trading are gradually being disintermediated. That process will accelerate.
The Yen, could come a gutser! The Nikkei has bounced as the Yen hot potato is passed from person to person, few of whom want to be holding it when the music stops. Anothe analogy would be musical chairs - all dance around, having fun, but when the music stops, everyone wants an asset to sit on, but there are not enough assets to go around and somebody is left holding the "In God We Trust" promissory note with little behind the promise.
I am not yet ready to cry Uncle and seek out a gold coin dealer [or bullion merchant].
Mqurice |
