Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (18458)	4/26/2002 5:11:18 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 74559

DJ, there's a defeatist and fatalistic approach to life these days which is becoming conventional wisdom. It says that we cannot outdo the stock market for example, so don't bother trying and don't try to time it. It says that we are all just pawns. We are pathetic particles blown in the winds with no influence. None of that is true. We got the lump above our eyebrows because it helped our ancestors get through life and be successful [in a DNA propagation sense]. Of course we can't perfectly time the market, especially now that neural net models of our efforts and competing models are doing a Deep Blue on market behaviour. But we can still add a little bit of value to a random decision to buy or sell by taking the trouble to learn and think. Of course there are other big influences on the financial system in Japan, but the 110 million Japanese response to those variables is the dominant influence. If they refuse to stampede, it is very difficult to drive them over a cliff and pick their carcasses at the bottom. Mq

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