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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: sean sanders who wrote (34920)4/26/2002 8:18:30 AM
From: StockOperator  Read Replies (3) of 52237
 
Sean,

First off, I appreciate your comments. Let's see if I can address them.

"I am not sure how you can compare a few select stocks and say that these are 'looking' ominous so the market will probably fall"

As I said to Berney in my previous post there has been a tremendous bull market in a wide group of stocks over the past couple of months. Stocks that the avg investor has never heard of. Unfortunately, for me at least, I don't follow them as well. I find my time is way to limited these days. But even with that I follow YESTERDAY'S darlings for a couple of reasons: The CSCO and QCOM's of the world are the stocks that drive the indices as well as investor's psyches. They are the stocks that will make or break the overall avgs. So I follow a broad list of the major players to include tech, brokers, banks, entertainment.... stocks that should drive our indices. And that is the reason why I have been so negative for the last couple of months. Stocks like CHKP, VRSN, AOL, VRTS are just a few of the stocks that have gone counter to the idea fostered by WS of a second half recovery. So when I point out DIS I do it on the heels of a drop in prices that is becoming pretty widespread. Just look at what they did to GS or MMC this week. Or even LEH. All non-tech and more importantly stocks that are important to any drive higher. What bothers me about DIS and why I mentioned it is their numbers and forecast this week was received well. Nothing out of the ordinary. But my work tells me differently. Similar to the breakdown in tech I believe the analyst community is missing something here. Just like my observation of that h&s pattern on HD. Should we be seeing that kind of pattern at this junture, especially if someones kids IRA money is betting on a bull market. I point these stocks out because they may be the next leg to fall. Look at VRSN in the premarket! It was over 30 when I first mentioned it. So I have tried to look at as big of a picture as possible. Of course you're right, they may drop and turn on a dime and take off. I remember that two week rally in March very well. But I continue to dislike the way that prices have set themselves up here. Hope that helped.

Good trading.

SO
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