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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN)
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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (1949)4/26/2002 10:29:37 AM
From: arun gera  Read Replies (1) of 2737
 
>We simply don't know, from the information given in the latest report and at the conference call, whether subscriber growth is really as high as reported, given the impact of fraud. And the accuracy of subscriber projections is not covered by any form of insurance I know of.>

Leap says its ARPU was $38.4. Calculated ARPU from Q1 2002 is $33.5. So the equivalent subscribers are 33.5/38.5*1.4 million = 1.22 million. 1.22 million is a conservative number. The real number is probably closer to 1.3 million, which is not a bad number. Note that all these discrepancies are already accounted for in the revenue numbers and equipment cost numbers. So the story is not that horrible. The big unknown in my model is how to predict the decline in equipment costs (which include fraud).

Arun
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