OT Nas, SOX bottom:
You could be right. I wouldn't mind that; I'm now 100% long, I really have no big desire to use margin (but I will, if I get my AMAT price targets). So, a bounce here would make me happy.
But, although I guess all the time, and I have been recently quite successful at my guesses, I know my ability to consistently predict ST market movements is poor. Very poor. ST, in this case, meaning anything under 3 years.
So I won't be using margin, unless we get lower levels, in the SOX and Nas. IMO, I think it highly likely (>70% probability) that this intermediate-term bottom occurs sometime in the 1600s. So, I think there is a fairly good chance of getting somewhat lower stock prices, but I expect no huge waterfall-down plunges. That's how I'm positioned. At Nas 1600, I'll have enough margin, that I'd have a margin call at Nas 1000. So, I'm making the bet that the chance of Nas 1000 is vanishingly small (speaking strictly about this intermediate-term low). |
