<If you are looking long.....don't worry about it!>
Michael, I believe in HLIT's long term potential, but I have also seen the roller coaster of price movement. I've wondered why HLIT often seems to meet a barrier and then fall for no reason. I'm starting to see the reason is often corelated to options expirations.
Again and again, I am seeing this effect. It is no coincidence. Looking at a 6 month chart and I think you'll see an amazing pattern when you look at price vs option expiration day.
For example, January started around 15 1/2 and moved up to 25 1/2, the highest point on the graph on Jan 17th, option expiration day. Then, it fell and didn't stop until April.
Feb options day, closing price was 19 1/8. People who sold Calls in January did very well, especially if they sold 20's at the high.
March on the other hand closed exactly at 15, (amazing coincidence), making puts and calls expire worthless. Three days before, the stock was around 13 on the low of the day. After satisfying options sellers by closing at 15, HLIT then continued to fall to the low of around 11 in the first week of April.
Then, the stock quickly rises to an intraday high of 18, closing at 16 7/8's only to quickly fall to 13 3/4, three days later which was again option expiration day. This option day is also a short term bottom. From here it takes off again, only to back off the day before May options expire.
May, the chart is great, going from the low 13 3/4, to the high of 20 3/4 only to fall the next day, options expiration, to 19 1/2. The next day, the bottom fell out and it dropped 16 13/16.
In June, we looked again like we would ralley. People buying 17 1/2 calls missed it though because options expired at 16 5/8 only to ralley the next day to 18.
Anyway, I'm going on too much. It is just very obvious that the stock moves in relation to options. I will be very interested to see if the "forces that be" can do it again and close HLIT at or below 17 1/2 on July 18th. They have nearly 3500 contracts, representing 35,000 shares saying it will fall.
Regards, Mark |
