Well, they've been right before...about 32 yrs ago, back then this often titled "naive public" did the exact opposite from the pros and bought when the professional panicked... problem is the face of today's individual investor has changed by a generation since then. Two years ago Sam Zell commented "It will probably end slowly rather than with a 1,000-point drop in one day, primarily because it's tough to convince people who've been winning that the game has changed. The whole new wild factor is all these individual investors who don't have the discipline of the pros. The market will go down, and they'll say, `Oh, another dip, a chance to double up.' But as the market keeps declining, they'll run out of money, and we'll get back to reality."
For the most part I think the institutions are more than ever dominating today's trading, individuals have more than curbed they transactions and maybe this addresses the lack of high volumes we witnessed prior to mid 2001. Question is will the pros panic again and dump? True, the individual has ridden this decline and although they can't be held solely responsible for the bubble, they sure as heck were the catalyst for institutions to pump away at.... the sheep blindly followed. But IMO it will be the pros who will designate this bottom....whenever that may happen.
BTW would you happen to know the book values for the OEX and DOW?
Have an enjoyable weekend.
Liz
BTW, have you read the most recent ECRI release:
businesscycle.com |
