Watched my times and sales log on TYC today. Interesting how the market maker ("mm") took TYC sharply down to 18.50 so he could pick up shares at that price. Overall, it appeared to me the market maker keep TYC's price under 20 for value buyers to take shares from "weak hands".
On Monday, he shall probably seek to hit the stop loss positions of those value buyers. Why not, TYC is one of the many stocks to now be negative on, so he might as well make money from all that negativity.
Between now and when the IPO goes public, I believe TYC shall see the 13 - 15 range before going back to 25. When it is in that price range, I shall double my Jan03 $10 & $15 naked put positions and pick up a significant amount of long shares.
In my opinion, Koz blew it - his creditability is zero with the street and many institutional investors. The only way TYC mgmt shall regain creditability is by getting rid of him.
He is probably a great operating manager. Without doing so, it shall take TYC many years for institutional investors to have full confidience in TYC's mgmt (those intangibles, like creditability and quality of the mgmt, are half of the investment decision).
I do not know what type of people are on the Board, but I am pretty sure once they see the stock price go below 15, they are going to move quickly on finding a replacement.
Believe it or not, I am long and bullish on TYC (on long term time perspective) because I used to be in financial mgmt position at ITT HQ during the 70's. ITT then owned finance businesses and the Hartford Insurance Co. ITT was more diversified then with half its operations outside the US, so I understand what Koz was attempting to do and it did make sense as a concept. Unfortunately he did not do his homework on the intangibles affects of that decision probably because he was to busy sailing his boats.
Anyway, the institutional sellers yesterday and today are stepping aside until Koz is replaced as they do not see this stock going anyplace but down until that happens. |
