One of your picks last night was MSFT. MSFT broke through support at 54.26 (the 4/8 low in the daily chart) on Tuesday. That was one sell signal, among many. There were also sell signals given by MACD, stochastics, stochrsi, etc. MSFT has also been in a longer-term downtrend in the weekly chart since January. It broke under another support level in the weekly chart in early April.
I seem to recall that you may have had a good shorter-term buy signal for MSFT around 2/28, shortly after it bounced off support. That was good for a short-term trade up to the 200 SMA. I can see what would lead one to buy there. There were quite a few buy signals. I would have sold it when it hit the down-sloping 200 SMA from below in March. I did not see any buy signals for MSFT this past week. Last night, the indicators were still trending down.
The Nasdaq broke under a support level in the daily chart on Tuesday, too (1724, from the 4/11 low). I posted notes on this at the time, on another thread. The failure of support was as good a sell signal as any, and it should have given pause to anyone hoping for a bounce off that level. Once that level gave way, the dipsters were likely to get dipped.
The Nasdaq has been in a downtrend since the middle of April (in the short term). Longer term, it's been in a downtrend since the beginning of March. And an even longer-term downtrend began in January.
I don't think the Naz looked at all good technically, but many traders hoped or believed in a bounce. I don't know what they were looking at in the daily, weekly or monthly charts. I haven't seen many specific references to indicators or charts. I've seen optimistic views on the economy, positive spins on earnings, incessant arguments against "bearish" posts, but I haven't seen much in the way of technical analysis supporting a rally.
As the market moves down to oversold levels, a rally becomes more likely. The S&P is oversold in the short term, in my opinion. The Nasdaq has a ways to go yet. I've posted notes with possible support levels and targets on another thread. You may dismiss the analysis as "bearish." I've backed up my views up with technical analysis of the charts and with values from a sentiment indicator I use. At some point, the charts and sentiment indicator will give strong buy signals. It's not a matter of being "bearish" or "bullish." It comes down to looking at a few support and resistance levels, some oscillators, sentiment, etc. I appreciate the fact that the market will rally at some point. Over the past few weeks, I wasn't prepared to concede that a rally was imminent.
I think it's necessary to focus on technical analysis of charts. The "bull/bear" debate is irrelevant. Any deeply held view on the market is bound to be quickly disproven by the market. |
