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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 75.19

-0.1%

Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: bambs who wrote (59136)	4/27/2002 2:47:02 AM
From: thenewnetwork	Read Replies (3) of 77400

bambs I am trying to understand why you do not see the significant technology spending coming. While I agree that it doesn't make sense in every area (like your example of rolling over every worker from a P3 to a P4 PC) the communications field is going through a completely different revolution which is still in its early stages and there are tangible benefits to making those investments as soon as the current situation stabilizes somewhat. The whole Circuit switching centric world based on conventional telephony is breaking down and a new universal network based on TCP/IP is taking over. This has nothing to do with Y2K related spending or PC upgrades that you refer to. Also the downfall of one sector of telecom (the LUs, NTs WCOMs, who gained most of their revenues from telephony sales and have not managed the transition to IP networking well) need not be interpreted as the end of Telecom. Rather it is the truly seismic shift from one paradigm of universal communication to another completely new one. This is essentially like tearing down and re-building the world wide telephony network that took decades to build. Its not going to take decades to re-build under the new technology though and it will take several casualties on the way. But it will not be denied (and soon). Businesses are clearly realizing bottom line and top line benefits by deploying TCP/IP networking technology. Think about everything from saving travel expenses (by using video conferencing) to efficient operations and inventory management by more real time monitoring of company operations and financials. From geographically disbursed development (like joint development by groups in India and the US or even east coast and west coast) to outsourced applications and storage. This is not even counting the massive other areas of growth like broadband to the home which for the time being are running into issues primarily because of regulatory issues with RBOCs (like BellSouth etc). I read somewhere that you were an MCSE. Could that be why you feel that the technology revolution was done after Y2K (because the Y2K spending was primarily "systems and software driven" when in fact there is this tremendous networking revolution which we are just in the early phases of ... I probably sound like a marketing type straight out of Cisco (which I am not BTW) but I do work in the field of networking and do own CSCO, so am curious as to why it is not apparent to folks like you that the networking revolution has a long way to go and will resume its growth very soon. Do you really think people should be or would be investing in a yellow piece of metal for the next decade instead of making this incredible global change happen ? I think not (because the benefits are too great to be denied). There may be temporary paranoia now due to all the churn in the economy and telecoms. But my guess is that the networking revolution is going to happen (or rather continue) sooner than you seem to suggest. My guess is that within 12-18 months we will see investment in networking at a renewed pace because it will be clear to regular old brick and mortar companies (not dot coms mind you) what the value of TCP/IP networking is to the bottom and top lines. BTW a personal question: If you do believe all tech is screwed up why do you only frequent the CSCO boards ? You seem to care too much about this particular company even as you express your dislike for its stock :-).

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