<do you not see a common thread, a pattern, a vague outline? Do you imagine history moves at the blink of an eye, the click of a mouse, and the flip of a TV channel.>
Jay, good morning!! Swing those Au weights. I look at random walks and see patterns. Everywhere I look, there are patterns. They can drive one nuts!
No, I don't think history moves very quickly - it amazes me how slowly people react, concatenate and coalesce when something happens [or they decide to do something]. Which is nice, because it makes it easy to get to the emergency door first or stoop to pick up a nugget left lying around ... oops, I shouldn't mention nuggets ... it's just a figure of speech.
Sometimes though, things move very, very fast and reaction times measured in 1/100ths of a second are vital. When an aircraft is heading for an office window, it is good to react quickly and be descending the stairs before impact and the crowds figure out that it's best to run for it.
If markets collapse, floor on floor, one had better be moving really quickly [better still to be well clear of the building before the collapse process begins]. But usually, as you say, things happen in an eerily slow but relentless way, until the denouement arrives which is when the dramatic action happens, as you implied <The most outrageous is always saved for the last moment of the script>. The Titanic didn't bump an iceberg and sink quickly [there was apparently plenty of time for the band to play some spirit-strengthening music]. Nero had plenty of time to fiddle while Rome burned [according to legend]. Incidentally, I had my best round of golf ever a week or so ago [78]; I have no idea how superhumans take 12 hits less than that [regularly].
So, yes, I see trends, threads, patterns and outlines which I find discomfiting.
I have abandoned my Dow 16,000 expectations for now. There is currently too much distress and conflict for happy mercantile activity to propel the world forwards to economic nirvana.
But our great idol, Uncle Al, has saved the world from a precipitous plunge because he years ago put the screws on and initiated the clearing of irrational exuberance from investors' minds. So, the prospects for collapse are small. After much mumbling, cursing, muttering, gnashing of teeth, wailing and whining, people will once again put their shoulder to the wheel, nose to the grindstone, ear to the ground, back to the wall, feet on the ground, eyes on the goal, hands to the oars, chest out, stomach in, shoulders back [the other one anyway], money where their mouth is and get back to work, making their lives, and therefore the world, [due to consumer surplus effects], a better place once again. Ever onward and upward.
So, I'm waiting to see whether the patterns will resolve into pandemonium or whether we'll revert to the long trend of history, and progress without a big crunch. I still expect the latter [but am feeling wary].
While I wait, I have cleared the decks, just in case emergency moves are needed - just as well too, because already we are taking on water. [To mix yet another metaphor]. I have hopped up on the surface and am running for cover...where's my damn bunker? I'll view proceedings from my bunker in Hobbitland while the Lord of the Rings works its evil magic around the world. But I'll leave some CDMA phragmented photons encircling the world as a countermeasure to Aztecian human sacrifice and the evil allure of that ring. I'm sure the magic of CDMA will have more power [but it's a bit scary waiting to find out for sure].
Mq
PS: Au weights! I just realized Au is the instigator of CDMA in Japan, Land of Genki Dama. Now that's rich irony! au.kddi.com |
