Mobile Wireless Technology Scorecard 2001
Mobile wireless actual subscriber growth peaked in the year 2000.
Rate of growth of wireless subscribers actually peaked in 1999 at 55% YOY and declined to 52% YOY in 2000 and declined further to 32.3% in 2001.
While there is significant room for growth in actual terms, the rate of growth will continue to decline.
This has affected all technologies.
* In Q4 1996 CDMA became the "Fastest Growing Technology" on a quarter over quarter basis with a very small subscriber base at that time.
* CDMA quickly entered a period of hypergrowth (greater than 100% subscriber per annum) and in Q4 1997 it became the "Fastest Growing Technology" on a YOY basis.
* At the end of Q3 2000 TDMA replaced CDMA as "Fastest Growing Technology" on a YOY basis after becoming "Fastest Growing Technology" on a quarter over quarter basis in Q1 2000.
* At the end of Q4 2000 GSM surpassed CDMA's rate of growth on a YOY basis for the first time since 1997.
* Surprisingly, TDMA remains the "Fastest Growing Technology" on a YOY basis, although GSM has been the "Fastest Growing Technology" over the last 6 months.
* TDMA growth is expected to decline starting at the end of this year and since carriers controlling over 65% of the TDMA user base are migrating to GSM, GSM is likely to become the "Fastest Growing Technology" YOY although it will be challenged by CDMA.
This month (April 2002) the 1 billionth cellular subscriber was added some 23 years after NTT DoCoMo launched the first cellular system in 1979.
Below is a look at how various technologies have been affected by the decline:
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2001 Subscriber Growth (Millions of Subs)
Net YOY % %
Dec 00 Jun 01 Dec 01 Adds Growth Digital All
GSM 455.1 550.1 646.5 191.4 42.1% 71.1% 67.7%
CDMA 80.4 96.3 111.3 30.9 38.4% 12.2% 11.7%
TDMA 65.2 80.9 94.7 29.5 45.2% 10.4% 9.9%
PDC 50.8 54.2 56.8 6.0 11.9% 6.2% 6.0%
Analog 68.0 55.3 45.3 -22.7 -34.0% - 4.7%
Total Subs:
Digital 653.5 781.6 909.3 255.8 39.1% 100.0% 95.3%
All 721.5 836.6 954.6 233.1 32.3% - 100.0%
Source: CDG for CDMA & EMC for GSM, TDMA, PDC & Analog
cdg.org
gsmworld.com
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24 Month Subscriber Growth by Technology
Current 1999 Net 2 yr % CAGR
Subs Subs Adds Growth
TDMA 94.7m 35m 59.7m 170% 64.49%
GSM 646.5m 271m 375.5m 139% 54.45%
CDMA 111.3m 50m 61.3m 123% 49.20%
Fastest Growing Technologies (24 months):
1. TDMA added 59.7 million subs for a 64.5% CAGR.
2. GSM added 375.5 million subs for a 54.5% CAGR.
3. CDMA added 61.3 million subs for a 49.2% CAGR
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18 Month Relative Market Share of CDMA & GSM
CDMA Market Share GSM Market Share
% of all % of digital % of all % of digital
Q4 2001 End 11.7% 12.2% 67.0% 71.0%
Q2 2001 End 11.5% 12.3% 65.7% 70.6%
Q4 2000 End 11.5% 12.7% 64.4% 71.4%
Q2 2000 End 11.9% 13.9% 56.6% 66.1%
* In the last eighteen months CDMA market share has declined marginally (.2% of all subs) while GSM market share has increased by 18.4% (10.4% of all subs).
* GSM has increased digital market share by 7.4% (4.9% of digital subs) in that period while CDMA has declined 12.2% (1.7% of digital subs).
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12 Month Sub Growth by Technology
Fastest Growing Technologies (12 months):
1. TDMA added 29.5 million subs for 45.2% YOY growth.
2. GSM added 191.4 million subs for 42.1% YOY growth.
3. CDMA added 30.9 million subs for 38.4% YOY growth.
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6 Month Sub Growth by Technology
Net 6 Mo.
Jun 01 Dec 01 Adds Growth CAGR
GSM 550.1 646.5 96.4 17.5% 38.12%
CDMA 96.3 111.3 15.0 15.6% 33.58%
TDMA 80.9 94.7 13.8 17.1% 37.03%
Fastest Growing Technologies (6 months):
1. GSM added 96.4 million subs for a 38.12% CAGR.
2. TDMA added 13.8 million subs for a 37.03% CAGR.
3. CDMA added 15.0 million subs for a 33.58% CAGR.
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Key Ratios
Current Ratio of GSM subs to CDMA subs = 5.8:1
Subscriber Net Adds GSM to CDMA for last 12 months = 6.2:1
Subscriber Net Adds GSM to CDMA for last 06 months = 6.4:1
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- Eric -
