Tom, a lot of questions. Let's start with the easy one, how to do italics, to open you put the letter "i" between a left and right sharp brackets "<" and ">", and to close you simply use "/i" between the same bracket, if you want bold, you replace i with b. If you want both bold and italic you simply open with "<"i"">" and "<b">" and then close (each) with the corresponding </*>, so you can create a sentence part italic and part italic bold.. Note that you do not use the quotation marks ", i used it so as to be able to show the symbols (if i did not use these, the printed text would just show the italics or bold, but not the bracketed i or b.)
As to the second question and the thesis of LTBH. You may want to read #reply-13483082 and #reply-16571006, where the very long turnips' thesis was laid out. In essence it is based on the historical fact that stocks will go back to normal valuations and that real bear market create unusual values. We are far from "unusual values", and still in the process of letting earnings catch up with excess valuations. As for the double dip you may want to read #reply-16842549 (the part about the economy). It is quite clear that the turnips have been quite over optimistic. The January rally topped at 2098 and the turnips had 2123 as a target. Then the following February decline was a bad miss since instead of stopping the decline at 1969, we went to 1700, a very big miss. Subsequent rallies were of course adjusted down by the roughly 300 Naz points of the February miss. Of course, as we get closer I try and correct these numbers, but the structure of the up and down moves, strangely enough is not to far from what is happening. The first Spring top was at 1830, and I still expect a mild double top, which right now I am "pegging at" 1770. The expected June Massacre will probably be deeper than I expected, but that depends a lot on how far any bounce (if we get it) will take us. My last "call" was "to the hills" when we breached 1757, and we are already 100 Naz points under. here I have started on Friday to rebuild position, but I must warn that right now I don't see anything that will make an eventual pop here lasting more than few days. Thus I have not put on my horns. For that I would rather see the white in the MM's eyes.
Zeev |
