since most folks never look at the big picture....most can't imagine nasdaq 1100.....
anyway....looking at weekly and monthly charts can shed some light on how the drop to 1400...rally to 1700-1800...then the last leg of the bear begins from that next lower high and leads to 1100....
the SPX weekly.....
stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyiay[dd][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
key points....
pattern forming on candles just like in august 2001 before a drop to the bottom....
under all moving averages now.....
MACD turning down under 0
PPO turning lower
full STO...the longer term stochastics still tracking down with plenty of room to go lower..
ADX-14...in bearish mode as the green line heads down and the red line heads up....that shows a bottoming process
remember...on ADX...the bullish case is green up and red down...thats a price rising in a topping process....
brief summary....any rally will be short as the longer term look is still tracking down.....
so those who yell we are way oversold....thats true on a daily short term look.....but the big picture on the weekly's is "not" oversold ....and still shows down....any short term pop won't effect that trend....
to look even further out.....to see if nasdaq 1100 is possible....look at the monthly chart.....
stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyiay[d19920427,20020427][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
key factors....
RSI turning down...bearish
SPX 150 and 200 day moving average still way down at 767 and 643....nasty...
MACD under 0...sign of weakness
PPO turning down....
slow and fast STO just on the verge of bearish cross overs...
full STO....the longer term STO...rolling over under 50....very weak sign...
and most important...
ADX-14....after breaking to the bullish cross of green going up and red down way back in 1994.....
in oct 2000 it did the bearish cross of green going down and red up.....so its in the bottoming process....
and as you can see....it was in the bullish topping process for 6 odd years.....
and its not even 2-YEARS INTO THE BOTTOMING PROCESS.....so thats why theres a REAL chance this market is crashing into next year in the final phase of a bear market.....
so thats how my 1400 bottom....brief rally up to 1700-1800..most likely most of those gains coming in the last month in some what of a blow off top because of the highly bearish monthly chart....before a long slow grind down to the bottom where the bull market started....
and one more note....market crashes come in oversold conditions just as bull markets ride over bought conditions
so lets look at gold...the $HUI
stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyiay[d19920427,20020427][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
key points....
RSI strong over 70...
MAJOR KEY....MACD heading up over 0....REMEMBER...this is monthly long term....just as the SPX is in weak under 0 MACD as where bear markets live.....the bull market lives over MACD 0....
the STO settings all in overbought....bad you say....no...remember this is long term....and just look at the SPX monthly in its bull market...the STO settings stayed overbought for YEARS!!!!!!!
ADX-14...crossed over to the bullish green up - red down area in 2001.....remember in the SPX BULL after it went bullish in 1994 it stayed that way till the end of 2000...6 years!!!!!
now you can believe anything you want.....you can listen to the experts on t.v...believe all the government numbers...believe all the company reports....
but personally....i don't listen to ANY of it.....
i listen to the charts because they don't LIE!!!!!
and i see an early gold bull forming and a deeper crash coming in nasdaq and the overall market.....
as long as i keep my eye on the "big picture"....i am prepared for the "worse case" and i won't get wiped out....
so when i trade the normal day to day swings....and i start seeing breakdowns like i did a few weeks ago.....they just confirm what i see longterm because i always keep my eyes on the....
"big picture"..... |
