JT I voted Lower Lower Lower
but under protest.
I was about to say exactly what Zeev said to you but he beat me to it.
We can indeed melt down from here but where we will be 18 months from now depends on too many factors that are not present right now.
Unlike two years ago the answer would have been easy.
What investment decisions can one make 18 months out (from where we are now, as opposed to where we were 18 months ago).
Big difference.
My timeframe is now months.
My model is based on Max pain.
Wish to hell I played it bigger these past 5 months I tell you.
Quite simply, if enough people get and stay pessimistic too long we rally, and vice versa.
All the while the market slowly wratches down to historic valuations.
Since historic valuations are so far out of wack from where we are, and the chance for many many many disasters (financial, political, oil shocks, terrorism, war, interest rates, etc) are high, to be positive we will be higher than this 18 months from now is sheer lunacy.
Now we could be higher 18 months from now but I doubt it.
More than likely (since this market has been going sideways and they have been replacing losers with winners in the S&P and Naz index), a quite reasonable bet is we are act exactly at these prices 18 months from now, on the way back up from Naz 1000, and the S&P and DOW roughy 40% lower from current prices whereever that is).
M |
