Bull/Bear SI Sentiment Poll Preliminary Final Results
84 Votes Cast-
41 Bears (Lower)
39 Bulls (Higher)
02 Undecided/Don't know
02 No change
y Undecided/Don't Know
Bull Camp: Bear Camp: z No Change:
01)J.T. 01)Steve Lee 1)yMechanicalMethod
02)Rich1 02)Rolando Toledo 2)z/exp
03)Annette 03)Bandit19 3)y/nsumer81
04)da_cheif 04)deathandtaxes 4)z/Sir Auric Goldfinger
05)DlphcOracl 05)CRUSADERFORTRUTH
06)sandiegobear 06)bid_buster
07)robert b. furman 07)Joan Graffius
08)Eugene Kearney 08)Andrew
09)mjfdl 09)Druss
10)DayTraderKidd 10)Peach
11)captaintime 11)At_The_Ask
12)Baton 12)James Reiher
13)IQBAL LATIF 13)Ge Ying Fang
14)William H. Hueb 14)tippet
15)drugstorecowboy 15)LLCF
16)Carolyn 16)Tabler
17)lifeisgood 17)itsallover
18)Amots Dramen 18)Les Horowitz
19)Tom Pulley 19)High-Tech East
20)hexamon 20)Softechie
21)Julius Wong 21)KyrosL
22)**arno 22)Dipy
23)Timetobuy 23)davidd
24)Bicycle 24)Gut Trader
25)Dave Gore 25)David W. Taylor
26)Surfratiam 26)SemiBear
27)John 27)Dennis Murphy
*28)marginmike 28)claptonsguitar
*29)Eddy Blinker 29)Lee lichterman III
30)Options Jerry 30)oldirtybastard
31)Dan Zimmermann 31)scotty
32)Peace 32)mishedlo
33)byhiselo 33)Monty Friesen
34)High Country Trader 34)Susan G
35)Uncle Frank 35)AllansAlias
36)Ann Corrigan 36)NewVision
37)samim anbarcioglu 37)KeepItSimple
38)Jon Koplik 38)Petrol
39)Jan Crawley 39)Jorj X. Mckie
40) 40)B.REVERE
41) 41)michael finsterwald
**Please Note Bull #28 and #29 marginmike and Eddy Blinker change their votes from Bearish to Bullish. MM misunderstood the poll to be 2002, but changed his vote when he realized the poll was for 18 months out closing October 31, 2003. Eddy Blinker changed his vote because of my misunderstanding his views. Eddy believes we are going to Dow 6,000 first this year (and now 5,000 after a friendly wager he couldn't refuse) and then back higher toward 12,000. He believes we will be higher than current levels at close October 31, 2002.
The new Bear votes uncounted until now move into the two vacated Bear slots #8 vacated by marginmike and now filled by Andrew and #27 Bear slot vacated by Eddy Blinker and now filled by Dennis Murphy.
******************************
A few points to consider. It is obvious based on this random raw poll, that sentiment is split evenly down the middle. And this two year Bear Market has washed out more optimism and frothiness than Bears care to admit.
On the flipside, Bulls have no reason to crow because there is 'complacent' pessimism in the sentiment data herein after a two year road to hades. Bears can contend the road to hell (for the market) is paved with good (or is that naive) intentions. And further, that the Bulls are blind to see what meltdown has already transpired and have not changed their views. The hurt is dead ahead.
What gets my perspective, however, is that this is an 18 month poll. Not a 6 month poll. And this market has ingrained a much more Bearish LONG-TERM sentiment outlook than Bears would like to admit. If this were a 6 month poll, or for that matter a weekly poll, I would be a little more concerned with the sentiment results, as it should be more skewed Bearish. As it is, pessimism permeates the long term market perspective and this must be considered a small comfort for this biased Bullish sentiment observer.
I welcome all views as mine is biased to the Bulls.
Best Regards, J.T. |
