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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 215.00+0.7%Dec 22 3:59 PM EST
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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (78699)4/28/2002 10:50:24 PM
From: RobohogsRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
Pretty soon all those profits are going to disappear (20-100+% hits) as new Congressional and/or FASB rules come in to force subtractions for options expense. AMD and Intel will both get hit badly earnings wise. That is what people are pointing to here except that AMDroids (as you call them) ignore the fact that AMD is handing out free stock options as fast as they can be printed.

I might add that I was disgusted that not one tough question was asked of Jerry at the annual meeting.

Finally, I am not sure AMD is having the problems with bin splits and yields being alluded to here and elsewhere. It appeared that only 5-10% of wafer outs were 130 nm and those later in the quarter. With 4,000 outs per week and 10% that would imply 400 outs per week at 130 nm or 5,000 or less total (since average appeared to be under 10% for quarter). At any reasonable yields, 1 MM die seem possible and that is pretty small compared to 8 million of sales per quarter and the 5 mm plus units which must be in inventory judging by inventory levels (assuming more than half of inventories are MPU-related and cost is in the $20-30 per unit range). So any initial process problems would have been magnified with the small runs.

Jon
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