You are 100% wrong about any Chapter 11 stuff re TYC.
There is no analogy whatsoever between Enron & Tyco. Enron was a essentially a service business (brokers) and Tyco is primarily a manufacturing business.
One of the things I did in my career was being a being a business broker. One old "rule of thumb" method for pricing a service business was one times revenue versus a three times revenue for a mfg business.
The real assets of a service business are its people and its customers. When the mgr who acquired and maintained the relationships with the big customers walks out the door, those customers may follow or go away to a competitor.
Different ballgame with a mfg concern, patents, market share, the cost and time of getting there vs. acquiring an ongoing business that makes things are some of things unique to a manufacturing operation.
You are watching to much TV, like CNBC, and reading articles from people who majored in Journalism, but never worked at the operational level of any business to understand why a business succeeds or fails. Their skimpy analysis and hype is pure bullshit.
If you believe what they are saying, you are not qualified to do your own investing. Put your money in a pillow, CD or money market account.
Even though I am a couple of thousand underwater with some naked July 30 puts I sold several months ago, I would love for TYC to go lower, like 15, 12 or even 10. I currently hold naked Jan03 puts that I sold at the 10, 15 and 20 levels.
If I get assigned these TYC shares in Jan 2003, then the rest of the stock market is also in the toilet at that time.
Do you think that I am going to just watch my naked put positions get more expensive in my brokerage account as TYC heads south once I see a continuing downtrend for TYC?
If your answer is yes, then that is another reason why you are not qualified to do your own investing. I am going to short TYC as it heads south.
I may also buy some May or June 20 puts, but I prefer to short shares because I have better control in entering and exiting than I would in dealing with the spreads on puts.
I am going to study the daily manipulation habits of the specialist for TYC, so that I may play it long or short intraday and/or swing trades.
I would rather daytrade a profitable undervalued stock than some overvalued stock whose technology I have no expertise in and, therefore, cannot identify their uniqueness.
I started a position in MSFT with some long shares under 52. I hope MSFT goes to 40, then I shall load up bigtime. Their uniqueness is real simple because they simply own most of the desktop PC marketplace.
I find this legal crap with the states to be a comedy. Gates said he would lay off 15,000 workers if he had to come out with a stripped down version of Windows.
I did not notice the media repeating that statement 50 million times like they do everything else.
In summary, turn off the television and do your homework on stocks that you have an interest in.
TYC is going to be like PLMD, so you have an opportunity to double or triple your money during the next 12 - 18 months. |
