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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.730-0.7%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Steve Lee who wrote (19819)4/29/2002 11:05:19 AM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (2) of 34857
 
Steve,

<< Why does SMS success in China bode well for GPRS? Almost everyone here in Europe uses SMS ... >>

Aha!

It's now taken for granted.

It's the "killer app".

It wasn't always that way.

SMS has been around since 1992 when GSM launched although it was enhanced considerably in GSM Phase Two (1994).

Initially it was used for voice-mail notification and later for OTA provisioning of subscriber data in SIM, and delivering SIM Tool Kit (STK) applications (early GSM Phase Two Plus).

In the early days of MO SMS it was used primarily by Scandinavian teenagers.

All of these were drivers of SMS growth:

* Introduction of SMS Mobile Originate (MO)
* Interoperability/Roaming
* SMS Mobile Originate for prepaid subscribers
* Pricing Evaluation, Sensible Pricing & Billing
* Handset features
- Predictive text
- Enhanced SMS (Nokia Smart Messaging)
* National SMS interconnect agreements
* Third party platforms for cross technology messaging

Until they came together SMS languished.

Hypergrowth did not begin to occur till 1999.

Last year 250 billion SMS messages were sent and we are approaching 1 billion per day.

<< and almost noone uses GPRS, despite it being available in every country in the EU >>

Seems like it has been there forever. <g>

Other than a few very mundane Motorolas, handsets didn't hit the shops till 9 months ago, networks were not then optimized, and even today the handsets have very few features or functionality that allow users to do anything more than experience always on WAP Crap at prices that don't make much sense.

Next generation services are just now being put together and are in early stages of implementation, and corresponding features just beginning to be being introduced in handsets.

Early focus will be on enhanced messaging (MMS) and location based services.

It is going to take awhile to strike the right value chord of feature/price ... just as it did with SMS ... but eventually the carriers in conjunction will get it right. Starting points are interoperability and roaming. Both have focus right now. Features and content have to follow, and then there is sensible pricing ...

It won't happen overnight.

- Eric -
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