<<<Yes, I am absolutely considering it. The more I hear people railing about 7K subs,the more I am willing to buy it. The number of subs at this point is meaningless.>>>
Agreed...and disagreed. I agree that 7k is of no value today, not the future though. Let's say that we both speculate that that between today and some point in the future the subs will be a million, heck let's even say it will be at that point 1 year from today. Agreed? Terrific, now what worries me is what happens in between that time. They may pump this thing now only to tank it before that sub. base gets to any great magnitude. So you see I agree 7k may not be of alot of importance today (that's why I was willing to risk entering at 8-9 for a ride of 2-3 points), what's important is if it's to overvalued leaving the starting gate with 7k subs it will be a likely candidate for a "Major" downturn prior to that base getting huge.
My tolerance for risk is high...just not that high. I'll remained sidelined for awhile do to this increase in the IPO price level. Maybe catch it later if it touches 8 (maybe Aug. if I am lucky). Long term it may be a great growth stock, problem is ramping up will take awhile. Then there is the xDSL thing too (sat. and wireless don't help either).
Check this out:
<<<xDSL vs. Cable Modems On the other hand, ADSL is best suited for the residential and small to medium sized businesses where its dedicated bandwidth and high speed asymmetrical nature of its downstream channel makes it ideal for Internet applications (up to 8 Mbps downstream and 640 kbps upstream). This gives it an attractive edge over Cable Modem. With 680 million telephone lines already in place at businesses and residential homes world wide, telephone companies are at a deployment advantage. Furthermore, most stand-alone CATV companies are trapped for capital funding which further deters their ability to upgrade and rebuild their cable network. These factors place telephone companies in a better position and enable them a shorter time-to-market advantage over that of CATV companies.
According to a study made by Dataquest of San Jose, the 1996 installed-base of 13,000 Cable Modem units will be surpassed by the xDSL modems by 25,000 units in 1997 (50,000 xDSL modems vs. 25,000 Cable modems), and by more than 400% by the year 2000 (3,700,000 xDSL vs. 900,000 CM). This is easy to understand when one considers the existing telephone and cable infrastructures. With the xDSL technology utilizing existing embedded twisted pair telephone lines, and its superior financial position over that of the Cable TV companies, it is easy to see the validity of the Dataquest study.>>>
Entire article at: primenet.com
Good luck if you get in on the IPO day(are you going to hold awhile or try a 3-10 day play like I was going to do?). Me I think it is high risk trying to catch it leaping from $10 1/2 (lucky to get shares at 11-12-13-?) I was hoping the IPO didn't draw alot of attention days before executing, looks like I didn't get my wish so Oh well for now.
Good luck to you,
Rich |
