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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: sammaster who wrote (162850)	4/29/2002 4:42:13 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (3) of 436258

From March to June 2001, the S&P 500 rose from about 1200 to about 1250 and then went into a decline that took it down almost to 1000 by September 1. Earlier, in 2000, from June1 of 2000 to about April 1 of 2001, the S&P declined from about 1500 to about 1150 after rising slightly from April 1 to June 1. quote.yahoo.com^GSPC&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=5y&l=off&z=m&q=l From February till the end of March in 2001, the VIX spiked four times above 35. Earlier, in April of 2000, the VIX spiked above 40 and several times above 30. askresearch.com It does not appear to me to be a very reliable indicator of a bottom, at least not for the S&P. If we look at the NASDAQ-- quote.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l we see a decline from 5000 to about 1500 during a period when the VIX might have called three or four "bottoms." To have invested on the basis of the VIX would probably have led to disaster, missing the general trend downward by trying to catch the unimportant rallies in between. Anyway, that's the way it looks to me.

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