"Yet" is definitely the key word.
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Intel's 2003 capex plans draw more predications, but some call forecasts 'irresponsible'
Semiconductor Business News
(04/29/02 15:08 p.m. EST)
SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- There are more predications floating around the marketplace concerning Intel Corp.'s capital spending plans for 2003, although one investment banking firm believes the forecasts are nothing more than "chatter"-if not "irresponsible."
Intel announced its 2002 capital spending plans only a few months ago, but analysts on Wall Street are already making some educated guesses about the company's expenditures for 2003. The first predications, generated from Intel's analyst meeting last week, came from investment banking firms that watch the semiconductor equipment industry. Most firms closely monitor Intel, given that the microprocessor giant is the world's largest buyer of chip equipment.
The first prediction of the year came from Prudential Securities Inc., which last week estimated that Intel's total capital expenditures could jump from $5.5 billion in 2002, to $5.6-to-$6.5 billion in 2003 (see April 26 story ). In January, Intel set its capital spending for 2002 at $5.5 billion, down 24% from a record $7.3 billion in 2001 (see April 26 story ).
Others also made similar predictions as well. In an e-mail issued on Friday, for example, Deutsche Bank Securities in San Francisco predicated that Intel's 2003 capital expenditures would be in the $5.7-to-$6 billion range, up only 5-6% from 2002.
"While it is still way too early to say for sure and the actual number will clearly be subject to change, it does seem quite a bit more bearish than current 2003 capex forecasts ranging from +20-35% year-over-year," according to Deutsche Bank.
Still others in the investment banking community believed the forecasts are premature--if not outlandish. "Market chatter on Intel 2003 capex shows lack of understanding about how Intelsets capex budget," according to an e-mail sent to SBN from undisclosed member of Goldman, Sachs & Co. of New York.
"Let us be perfectly clear that we aren't making a statement one way or the other on where Intel's 2003 capex is likely to come out at this point," according to the e-mail. "It is simply too early to tell and there are too many unknown variables," it said.
"What we are saying is: 1) Drawing definitive conclusions based on data presented at last week's meeting is irresponsible, and 2) That buying or selling semi equipment stocks based on these conclusions simply doesn't make sense," according to the e-mail.
A spokesman for Intel declined to comment on the company's 2003 spending plans, saying it is still focusing on 2002. |
