Contrarian Chronicles
Ignore tech fantasies and analysts' fairy tales
Ridiculously costly stocks will seem only more so as the fantasy of economic recovery fades. Best to ignore the earnings blather, be mindful of history and consider the possibilities of cash.
By Bill Fleckenstein
4/29/2002
money.msn.com
<<...Generically, I would not own any stocks, and I do not own any stocks except those related to precious metals. But I have radically cut back my short positions, because the market has been down so many days in a row and we are heading into the no-news period where fantasies often fly fast and furious. So for the moment, I have virtually eliminated my short positions. If we get a big rally, I will begin getting short again. If the market continues to cascade, depending on how it plays out, I will deal with that as it develops. Obviously, when I'm short something, this is stated in the disclosure section of the column, but those positions can and do change pretty rapidly.
Away from stocks, I like fixed income, but only in the three-to-five-year area, which I think is fine for people who need income. I don't want to own anything longer because I'm concerned about the dollar, as I've stated on many occasions. I am long the euro. I am also long gold and silver stocks, the former via some Franco-Nevada warrants that convert into Newmont Mining (NEM, news, msgs) shares (so basically, I'm long Newmont stock). As for silver, I am long Pan American Silver (PAAS, news, msgs), of which I am a company director. So, there's a recap of my positions.
Opportunity Fort Knox
Why do I hold the metals? In a nutshell, I believe what will be the driving force behind gold and silver investment demand will be a generalized lack of confidence in financial assets and currencies, which is going on in Japan right now. One can quickly see that if a tiny amount of the world's financial market assets flowed into the metals market, you could have an explosive rise. I'm not saying it will happen, but this is a risk/reward opportunity that I like...>> |
